The Mirage of the Flattening Curve

In an internet haemorrhaging with Covid-19 theories, models and questionable facts it is imperative to define the parameters we are using to judge this global pandemic.

Predictive modelling, infection statistics and the flattening curve are being offered as mental life boats in uncharted seas.

In simplistic terms, predictive modelling in epidemiology is a mathematical attempt to understand the potential spread and life cycle of a virus and forecast elements of the outbreak. It accesses past and current statistics and builds possible scenarios.