The Economy Vs The People
To date, May 1st, 2020 the US Federal government has passed four relief bills related to the coronavirus pandemic: the Coronavirus Preparedness and Response Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2020), The Families First Coronavirus Response Act, The Cares Act, and the Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act. Initially, they were created to protect the citizens of this country from a deadly health risk, Covid-19 and next, to mitigate the financial devastation it was causing on American families.
Priorities are swiftly reverting to business “normal”. Money vs the people. Arguments between our elected parties are again clashing over a possible new bill proposal to inject further cash into business sectors. One in which unemployment is taking the brunt of the rising anger of both employers and employees. Outdated state systems are unable to manage the historical flood of applications, and actual payments continue to be delayed across the country. Money that would have gone to rent payments, groceries and other “essential” economic spending. This has led to angry protests demanding to “open the country,” save jobs and, the economy. Many of those jobs no longer exist. And, “opening the country” will not bring them back. Lean and mean is the new Covid business model. This mutual desperation is in direct conflict with the logic of science and medicine and has introduced an unprecedented emotional debate of who has the right to choose whether we live or, die.
There are very few countries left in modern times where politicians can demand their citizens die for them. Previously, that honour was reserved for soldiers and wars. Recent statements from some American politicians bring war lord comparisons to mind. They too tend to offer their citizenry limited options of die now or, later. In what world have the words “over my dead body” become the rallying cry in a pandemic rescue debate? When did we deem the death of our citizens not only acceptable but, an event to be encouraged? Texas Lt. Governor, Dan Patrick went so far as to state “lots of grandparents are willing to die to save the economy for their grandchildren”. Are “lots” of grandchildren equally willing to sacrifice their grandparents? He is not alone in his sentiments. For the sake of everyone’s grandchildren, I sincerely hope these strong beliefs cross into a willingness to also save their future environment which continues to be in a state of crisis.
Currently, several states are swinging their political scythes in variable campaigns to re-open their economies throughout May. Cinemas, restaurants, churches, gyms and other “close contact” environments are part of an implied instant economic resurrection. That this attitude is reminiscent of “arbeit macht frei” words written over the infamous Holocaust work camps is seemingly irrelevant. Far Right extremists seeking to compare social distancing to a Nazi policy have clearly never cracked open a history book. Those crowded camps were designed to save the economy too.
Leading global public health experts including those in the US,’ warn that early, un-coordinated actions will jeopardize millions of Americans lives accelerating the “second wave” of infections, even as we are still reeling from the first. This begs the question, what is the mathematical equation of acceptable loss? What percentage of death is being calculated to balance current GNP losses?
Epidemiologists are gauging a different key metric of the coronavirus. The “R0' value, or “basic reproductive number”. This number quantifies the number of secondary infections generated by a single infected person.
In layman terms it shows the extent the virus spreads and re-produces. The safety target is to keep the rate at less than “1”.
This simply means, an infected person is likely to infect other person they come in contact with. The lower the “R0” number falls, the more secure we are about controlling the virus in the population and, more people survive.
We have not yet achieved an R0 of “1” in the US. Epidemiologists currently estimate it to be between 2.3–2.7. Swiss cheese logic applies when individual States set their own versions of “openings” and reject cohesive policies. Unlike Europe, we do not have internal borders that will be closed in emergencies. The rights of the Union vs the State leaves The People in tug-of -war protests over the “rights” of who should live or, die. Such debates should have no place in any civilized country.
The administrations hard push for a return to “normal” aligns with upcoming elections and popularity polling numbers. A directive of “We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself” is baffling in its implications. The problem, in simplistic terms — is dying. Opening the economy will not cure that. And, “normal” is not coming back. Call it a mixed-blessing.
Texan Dan Patrick made news again on Monday night, when he informed Tucker Carlson of Fox News that he preferred an America without social distancing. We can all agree to that one. Adding that it was acceptable to lose a majority of citizens aged over 65 is not so agreeable.
He strongly felt this was better than Americans staying at home and protecting each other as a united country. He made no allowances for doctors to find a vaccine or wait for a legitimate flattening curve. Which begs the mathematical equation again. What financial gain is calculated by the government in losing a block of the population? Further, will losing these people guarantee a “recovered economy”?
If we are “at war”, as President Trump has stated, who is the real enemy? Covid-19, the economy or Average America?
The Paycheck Protection Program was promoted as a plan to keep employees on payrolls and small business open. The theoretical backbone supporting our economy according to state leaders. The New York Times reported that America’s biggest banks inclusive of Citibank, Chase, Wells Fargo and US Bank pushed some of their biggest clients to the front of the queue essentially wiping out the allotted “small business” loan money within days.
Some companies, after a storm of antagonistic publicity claim they will return the money. Others including MiMedx Group Inc (valued at $420 million) and digital watermark provider Digimarc Corp ($197 million) still refuse.
What is not being discussed is the actual human cost of returning to work during a pandemic. What is the real monetary value of a life? Federal agencies actually do have an equation for this and use it to implement new regulations. It pivots on a basic question: do the benefits outweigh the costs? Calculating how beneficial a regulation is means measuring how many deaths would be prevented, and what each life that is saved is actually worth.
The formula for this is called the “Value of Statistical Life, or VSL.
Several federal agencies have calculated that you, Mr and Mrs Average American have a life that is indeed valuable. In 2017 statistics showed an average U.S. household with a net worth of less than $100,000. That has not changed significantly. Back in 2017, the Environmental Protection Agency quoted the value of an average American life at $10 million. Repeat. TEN MILLION.
Since 2017 employees have battled for liveable wages and the public pushed for better work safety measures. Federal agencies have since increased what they think your average American life is worth. Ten million+….
Federal agencies judge market forces when estimating the value of statistical life. More dangerous jobs are compensated based on the perceived degree of risk. In a hypothetical Bloomberg example, “if a miner faces an additional 1-in-5,000 chance of death compared to similar jobs, then the total extra wages paid equals the VSL”.
In 2003 the EPA sought to lower life values. While preparing the Clear Skies Initiative analysis the agency attempted to apply a 37% lower life value for people 65 and older which became known as the “senior discount”. A political storm ensued and the devaluation was abandoned. Since then, the VSL has only gone up, including with the current administration.
Employers paying minimum wages are finding employees reluctant to put their lives on the line for the sake of business. States are implementing policies to force employees back to work with threats of lost unemployement benefits (which many are still waiting for) and promises of “normal” life. A normal life where “at will” state employment laws offer zero job security. Living on minimum wages is already impossible for average American families, now they are literally being told their lives don’t matter. They are sacrifices to the Church of Mammon. (Matthew 6:24)
It might be suggested that the next relief conversation include legitimate ways to upgrade current minimum hourly wages to compare with pandemic unemployment payments. Clearly, without workers, there is no economy. Democrats and Republican should remember that if this Union is to survive, with some semblance of “normal” all lives have value. If one is forced to give one’s life to save the economy, one should get paid full value for it.
Originally published at https://www.linkedin.com. May 1, 2020
